MLB PICKS TODAY: BEST BETS, ODDS, PREDICTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2024

2024 Record: 42-51 (-10.59 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Montgomery vs. Graham Ashcraft

This is the smallest bet of the day. These offenses have struggled and find themselves in less favorable situations. The weather favors runs, and both bullpens are in a vulnerable position. If either starting pitcher falters, the over could hit, aligning with the system discussed yesterday in the Tigers vs. Guardians game.

This MLB trend has a 71% success rate over 104 games. It applies when the team’s winning percentage is higher than their opponent’s, the O/U total is set above 6.5, and the money line is at least -260. Additionally, the team’s season percentage of hitting the over is at least 48%, the game is at home, it’s the second in the series, and within the first 70 of the season. The previous game must have gone under.

We discussed this system yesterday, and it makes sense: betting on the over after a game went under, involving teams that have proven offensive capabilities.

Both starting pitchers have impressive stats against these offenses, which are in their weaker splits and rank in the bottom ten. However, this bet isn't for the faint of heart.

Jordan Montgomery is still regaining form after a delayed offseason. In his last start against the Dodgers, he gave up six runs. Despite the Reds' struggles against left-handers, his strikeout rate has halved, his sinker velocity has dropped by 2 MPH, and he's giving up more hits while allowing a career-high hard-hit rate. Though early, he remains hittable.

Graham Ashcraft is a strong pitcher but is susceptible to meltdowns at home, where his ERA is 8.44 this year, compared to 5.60 last year. His small ballpark complicates matters, and while the Diamondbacks couldn't hit on Tuesday, they could be competitive against Ashcraft.

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in ERA and are not well-rested.

In a small ballpark with humid conditions, the weather points to higher run totals. Temperatures are expected to reach 80°F, with winds blowing in, although rain (42% chance) could be a factor.

While both pitchers have had solid outings against these offenses, which are in their worse splits, we'll place a half-unit bet on the over after yesterday's 6-2 result despite dominant pitching.

The Pick: Over 9 Runs (-105) Risk 0.525 U to win 0.5 Units

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta vs. Chris Sale

This total seems too high once again. The Braves' offense remains in a slump, despite scoring four runs yesterday. They still don't resemble the elite lineup we're accustomed to. Chris Sale makes his first start against the team that traded him, and the bullpens are well-rested. However, we expected this total to be set at nine.

Since being traded, Sale faces the Red Sox for the first time. Known for his intense focus, he has a good chance of delivering his best performance of the season. It's not exactly "revenge," but he may take this personally, much like Michael Jordan would.

Aside from the narrative, Sale's pitching is impressive. His 2.81 xERA is even lower than Reynaldo López's yesterday and better than his solid 3.44 ERA. Although the Red Sox have performed well against left-handers recently, it's a small sample. Their overall 109 wRC+ against lefties ranks 12th in MLB. Despite this, Sale's 1.5 earned run line and 17.5 pitching outs line favor him going over.

The books believe Sale will get his revenge, and we agree.

We considered betting on the Braves, but Nick Pivetta's current form remains uncertain. His previous numbers against Atlanta weren't impressive, but Pivetta has reinvented himself since leaving the Phillies. Still, the Braves' offense has struggled in nearly every metric against right-handers over the past few weeks, which is likely to continue.

Pivetta also returns from the IL today after rehabbing a right-flexor strain. Despite initial concerns, he could dominate, coming back stronger than ever.

If Pivetta is at his best, he's an elite arm with a 0.84 ERA. His underlying metrics, strikeout rate, and command are exceptional, placing him among the best in K-BB rate. His potential is why this bet isn't a full-unit play; his performance remains a question.

The books are uncertain too, estimating Pivetta will go five innings and allow three runs. That seems fair, especially considering Kutter Crawford had a 3.5 earned run line yesterday and went under. Pivetta could also perform well.

While the bullpens aren't as rested as yesterday, they rank in the top ten and have quality arms available. The weather remains warm with a slight breeze blowing in.

Sale and Pivetta should give up around four runs in five innings, allowing the game to stay under 8.5. Though we preferred nine, 8.5 at +100 is reasonable and worth playing to -110.

The Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) Risk 0.75 Units

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Hicks vs. Peter Lambert

The Rockies are struggling offensively, and the Giants are among the bottom ten teams against right-handed pitching. The Giants have a standout ground-ball pitcher, while the Rockies feature a subpar starter. Although this game is at Coors Field, the first-half total still seems inflated.

The Rockies simply can't hit. Although a system recommended backing them at home in their first game of the homestand, we didn't follow it for this reason: the Rockies' offense is ineffective.

They are the worst team against right-handed pitching this season based on wRC+, a critical park-adjusted metric that shows they rank last with a score of 71 against righties.

Even using OPS specifically at home against right-handed pitchers, they rank just 22nd, lower than the White Sox. Despite playing at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, their offense continues to falter.

The Rockies face Jordan Hicks, one of the best starters in the National League so far. Although his strikeout rate has dipped, he is keeping his pitches well-located and inducing ground balls at a 58.7% rate. If anyone can pitch well at Coors, it's Hicks, with his knack for forcing ground balls.

Hicks is a strong bet to stay under 2.5 earned runs, as he hasn't allowed more than two in his past six starts. Even at elevation, his recent consistency makes him a safe bet against the Rockies.

On the other side, Peter Lambert is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, typically lasting only three to four innings. While he's not ideal to back, the Giants offer him a favorable matchup.

The Giants' wRC+ against right-handers is 96 this season, but in the last two weeks, it's fallen to 82, placing them 22nd in MLB. Their power metrics are weak, and they have the seventh-highest strikeout rate.

Lambert is due for positive regression, with his ERA estimators in the low fours compared to his actual mid-fives ERA. His Hard-Hit rate is average, and his ground-ball rate is above average. Expect him to give up around two runs over four innings.

To avoid unpredictable bullpen performance, we'll focus on the first five innings. Both the Giants and Rockies have bullpens ranked among the bottom four in ERA. The Coors Field factor is important, but the first five innings under seems like a solid two-unit play. We'd take it at 5 runs for -115.

The Pick: First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units

The post MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Wednesday, May 8, 2024 appeared first on Just Baseball.

Post written By Peter Appel

2024-05-08T17:28:27Z dg43tfdfdgfd