PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT CINCINNATI REDS ODDS, PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
The Philadelphia Phillies (15-8) and Cincinnati Reds (12-10) meet at Great American Ballpark for the 2nd game of a 4-game series Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Philadelphia won Monday's opener 7-0 and is 7-0 with a plus-31 run differential over its last 7 games.
The Reds mustered just 2 hits Monday. The loss snapped a 3-game win streak.
Phillies at Reds projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Sanchez (1-2, 2.53 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start this season. He owns a 1.31 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 7-6 win vs. Colorado Rockies Wednesday; the 10 K's tied a single-game season high
- Career vs. Reds: 1-0, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
Abbott (1-2, 2.70 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 23 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-1 loss at Seattle Mariners Wednesday
- Career vs. Phillies: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 6-3 road victory in 10 innings April 1
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Phillies at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Phillies at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Reds 5
Moneyline
Abbott has been aided by some generous rates around the margins. For example, his batting average allowed on balls in play is a tiny .227.
Figure the 2 bullpens as being due some regression, and that works against a Cincinnati pen with a surface ERA of 3.79 and for a PHILADELPHIA (-125) group that has filed a BABIP-spoiled 5.78.
BACK THE PHILLIES (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: better leverage can be found on the ML.
Over/Under
The Under cashed Monday with the Reds offering no help. But the Over is 5-2 across the last 7 Philly-Cincy games.
Both clubs have been at their best against left-handed pitching. Abbott's BABIP likely has some overrating his run-prevention abilities. The Cincy offense has been riding a bit low due to the team filing a .274 BABIP when leading off innings. That's a key clutch statistic often overlooked in how it affects scoring.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions
2024-04-23T13:52:28Z dg43tfdfdgfd