SERIES PREVIEW: BOSTON RED SOX, ROUND 1

The Twins are on an absolute heater, winning an MLB-best 10 straight games. Winning 10 straight games is an impressive feat for any reason (the Twins hadn’t done it since 2008), but it helps when those games come against the lowly White Sox and Angels. The Boston Red Sox will mark the best team they’ve faced since our beloved summer sausage turned the season around.

What happened in 2023?

Last season started with a bright spot, albeit a somewhat forced one. After trading away franchise cornerstone Mookie Betts and losing All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency, the newly frugal Red Sox ownership group saved face by signing third baseman Rafael Devers to an 11-year, $330 million extension. His 2023 season wasn’t his best (his 3.4 fWAR the lowest he’s had in a full season since his 2019 breakout), but the underlying metrics are still very promising. No buyer’s remorse here.

They may have some remorse with Masataka Yoshida. The Japanese outfielder wasn’t terrible but didn’t perform well enough to justify his five-year, $90 million deal. Most concerningly, he really struggled in the field and on the bases, ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in Baseball Savant’s fielding and base running values. A league-average bat confined to DH is, as the kids say, not what you want.

On the pitching front, the Red Sox were decent, but relatively unspectacular. They featured surprisingly strong seasons from Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford while veterans Chris Martin (NOT the Coldplay singer) and Kenley Jansen were strong at the end of games. The Red Sox finished 78-84 but were also the only team to finish under .500 in the strong AL East.

What’s new in 2024?

The Red Sox have gone under more of a retool than a rebuild, moving some money around while banking on improvements from their younger core. Boston traded for OF Tyler O’Neill while sending OF Alex Verdugo to the rival Yankees. They also sent out seven-time All-Star Chris Sale to Atlanta, acquiring infielder Vaughn Grissom.

On the FA side, they signed SP Lucas Giolito and RP Liam Hendriks, both of whom may not pitch for them this season. They also lost 1B/DH Justin Turner, OF Adam Duvall, and SP James Paxton. With a complete, healthy team, they were poised to make a jump with a few internal improvements. And then the injury bug hit.

Currently on the IL are 1B Triston Casas, SS Trevor Story, 2B Vaughn Grissom, OF Masataka Yoshida, C Tyler Heineman, and UTIL Romy Gonzalez; SPs Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy, and Bryan Mata and relievers Liam Hendriks and Isaiah Campbell. Of that group, Story, Giolito, and Hendriks are expected to miss the year, while Yoshida and Pivetta could be heading for surgery that would put their seasons at risk. The young Casas, meanwhile, isn’t expected to return until after the All-Star break, though Grissom may make his Red Sox debut this weekend.

Their success has mostly come on the backs of several post-hype breakouts. O’Neill has won a couple of Gold Gloves and finished 8th in MVP voting in 2021, but has struggled to consistently perform on the offensive end. He has all the athleticism in the world, but this year is also leading baseball with a .658 SLG and 1.073 OPS since coming over from the Cardinals. Jarren Duran looks like he can actually field the ball now to go along with his line-drive offensive approach and league-leading 9 stolen bases. Wilyer Abreu has a .915 OPS and 5 stolen bases in 22 games. Catcher Connor Wong has a 1.006 OPS and has hit 5 home runs in 75 plate appearances. His previous career high was 9 HRs in 403 PAs last season. Rafael Devers, meanwhile, continues to be rock solid in the middle of the order.

On the other side of the ball, SPs Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Cooper Criswell all have ERAs under 2.00. They have each pitched at least four seasons in the Bigs and only Houck has ever had a season with an ERA below 4.00, and even he got bumped from the rotation afterward. Crawford, though, does look like he’s made some meaningful changes, even if he’s not quite this good.

Unfortunately for Boston fans, this level of performance is simply not sustainable. This isn’t to say none of the breakouts are real, but regression to the mean on both personal and team levels are inevitable.

Other Names to Know

Off the field, the Red Sox also made a significant change, firing POBO Chaim Bloom and bringing in Twins legend Craig Breslow to run their baseball ops. Boston tried to lure Derek Falvey, who turned them down, and also interviewed GM Thad Levine, so it’s clear the Red Sox love what’s been cooking in Minnesota. Breslow brought some Minnesota Magic anyway, hiring away former Twins minor league pitching coordinator Justin Williard. That marked the fourth straight year the Twins have lost their head of pitching development on the farm, losing previous ones to KC, SF, and themselves when they promoted Pete Maki.

The Red Sox also signed a couple of young, promising players to extensions. Starting pitcher Brayan Bello agreed to a six-year, $55 million deal, while speedy outfielder/shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela agreed to an eight-year, $50 million pact. The deals are fairly identical, paying both players through their age-30 seasons with club options for the year after. They are hefty investments for two relatively unproven players, but ones that could pay huge dividends if they are able to improve.

TLDR

You have to give the Red Sox credit for enduring a ridiculous stretch of injuries in the young season, but they seem likely to fall back to earth soon. With a bit of luck, that will happen this weekend in Minneapolis.

2024-05-03T17:22:29Z dg43tfdfdgfd