THE MOST UNLUCKY TEAM IN MLB: THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

I am on vacation with my wife so I don’t have a ton of time to really get into this or create nice tables, but I wanted to get this out there as potentially a pick-me-up to struggling fans like myself. Here it goes:

The Dbacks got off to a good start, but then the offense failed to get the big hit and the bullpen failed to record the key outs. How many of the recaps so far this season have basically been the previous sentence?

Especially after last night’s game, I found myself feeling the frustration I have felt all too often this season with this team. But then I started to ask the question, why? Jesse Friedman also seemed to be wondering this and posted the following tweet which begins to shed some light:

https://x.com/JesseNFriedman/status/1782776233463631952

It has been no secret that this team has struggled in high leverage situations this season. But how bad? The dbacks have the worst batting average in all of baseball in high leverage situations at just .108 and its not even close. Second worst is almost 20 points higher!

This would be bad enough, however the pitching has also been the worst in baseball in high leverage situations with teams batting over .337! Again 32 points higher than the next worst team.

So not only are they the worst team in MLB at hitting in high leverage situations, but they are also the worst team at pitching in high leverage situations. This is also in a sample size of over 100 PA on both sides of the ball.

The million dollar question here is why? The silver lining here for Dbacks fans, is that to be this bad in high leverage situations luck also has to undoubtedly play a major role. Aside from having a .108 BA as a team in high leverage situations, they also have the lowest BABIP at just .116. Likewise on the pitching end opponents have a .367 BABIP. For context in 2023 league average BABIP was .297.

Honestly, I believe this is great news for Dbacks fans. Aside from all of the bad luck with injuries, this team has also been the most unlucky in high leverage situations both on the pitching side and the hitting side. Now I recognize BABIP is not simply a luck stat, however that being said the ranges for BABIP in high leverage situations over the course of 162 regresses towards the mean which is .297. Think about it like this, the Dbacks are still hovering close to .500 with literally the worst stats in MLB in high leverage situations due to BABIP that is not maintainable for opposing teams.

I know it is easy to get wrapped up in the negative things that happen on a game to game basis. However I also think it is important we keep in mind some of the macro stats. Especially when there is likely to be much improvement even if nothing changes. Disturbing trend, absolutely. Is it reasonable to expect opponents to have a .367 BABIP in high leverage situations moving forward? What about our hitters continuing to have a BABIP of .116? Absolutely not. Hopefully this puts some of you guys at ease, and although I am on vacation I look forward to some good discussion.

2024-04-23T17:58:14Z dg43tfdfdgfd