WHY ARE THE CUBS NOT STEALING BASES THIS YEAR?

In 2023, the Cubs were one of the better base-stealing teams in MLB. They stole 140 bases, which ranked eighth overall, and were caught only 34 times, for a stolen-base percentage of 80.5 percent. That’s quite good!

Nico Hoerner stole 43 bases, fourth-most in the NL, while being caught just seven times, a SB percentage of 86 percent, also excellent. Cody Bellinger had 20, a career high, and three other Cubs were in double figures: Ian Happ, 14, Miles Mastrobuoni, 13, and Nick Madrigal, 10.

Now, with essentially the same personnel, the Cubs have stolen four bases so far in 22 games. Four! And they’ve been caught stealing six times, which is... not good.

Coincidentally, the Cubs have the same record now — 13-9 — as they had after 22 games in 2023. So perhaps we can make a comparison.

The Cubs had 24 steals after 22 games in 2023, with eight CS, That’s a 75 percent success rate, which is about the minimum to be considered “good.” They had scored 127 runs through 22 games in 2023. This year’s bunch has scored 119 over the 22 games, a few less but not a significant difference.

Could it be that more guys got to second on their own last year? Well... nope. The 2023 Cubs had 36 doubles, three triples and 29 home runs through 22 games, 68 times reaching at least second base under their own power. This year’s team: 35 doubles, eight triples and 23 home runs — 66 times, basically the same. The 2023 Cubs batted .278/.351/.446 through 22 games. This year’s team is batting .247/.327/.408.

Well. Those latter figures are significantly lower, despite the team having about the same number of extra-base hits.

Some of us figured that Hoerner, having stolen 43 bases last year, might steal 50 or more in 2024. Of course, Nico got off to a terrible start, though he’s hit better lately. He’s tried to steal twice and been caught twice. The only Cubs with stolen bases at all this year are Dansby Swanson (two, in four attempts), Christopher Morel (one, in two attempts) and Nick Madrigal (one, in one attempt). The only other SB attempt, unsuccessful, was made by Seiya Suzuki.

There is one significant difference in this year’s Cubs: the manager. But Craig Counsell’s Brewers stole 129 bases in 157 attempts (82.2 percent) last year, so it would seem that if Counsell has guys who can run, he lets them. The 129 steals ranked 11th in MLB in 2023.

The lack of steals has not prevented the Cubs from scoring runs. Their 119 runs rank seventh in MLB and in runs per game, they rank sixth at 5.41. It just seems to me that perhaps the team could generate even more runs by doing a bit of running, as they did last year.

Any thoughts as to why the Cubs just aren’t running so far in 2024 are welcome.

2024-04-23T14:13:11Z dg43tfdfdgfd