POTENTIAL TRADE OFFERS THAT MIGHT MAKE THE PATRIOTS MOVE THE NO. 3 PICK IN THE DRAFT

Even though they are coming off a 4-13 season and are no longer led by Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots are one of the most intriguing teams in this year’s NFL Draft. Owners of the No. 3 overall selection, they are the first club on the clock surrounded by a true aura of uncertainty.

Whereas the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders are expected to make quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels the first and second overall picks, respectively, everything seems possible at No. 3. The Patriots could stay put to fill their own need at the position, selecting either Drake Maye or, seemingly less likely, J.J. McCarthy.

However, they very well could move the pick in a trade. So far, no team has offered a “bag” — as head coach Jerod Mayo put it — to make New England seriously consider its position in the draft. The closer the first round gets, however, the more teams might get antsy to make a move.

Four stand out in particular: the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are all in the market for quarterback help. Between them and the Patriots, however, there are only so many viable prospects available, meaning there might be motivation for all of them to move around the board in order to secure their guys and maximize the capital at their disposal.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some potential trade offers that might fall into the “bag” category and might make the Patriots move off their current spot at No. 3. In order to evaluate them, we will use Joseph Hefner’s draft trade value calculator as well as a projection by former NFL agent Joel Corry.

Trade partner No. 1: New York Giants

The Giants have Daniel Jones under contract, and that deal might complicate matters for them. That said, they have a potential out in 2025, meaning they could very well get aggressive in order to reposition themselves with a long-term perspective in mind.

Rumor has it that landing Drake Maye is their dream scenario, but in order to get him moving from No. 6 to No. 3 would likely be the way to go. Corry sees the following compensation as realistic: New England gets the sixth pick, the 47th in the second round, and a 2025 first-round selection.

Per the draft value charts — projecting that New York will pick high again in 2025 — that trade looks good from New England’s perspective:

On paper, New England can be happy with that haul and might be willing to accept. Ultimately, however, it all comes down to one simple question: is a chance at picking Drake Maye at No. 3 more valuable than extra capital plus a possible shot at J.J. McCarthy at No. 6?

The McCarthy factor — assuming New York goes after Maye in this trade — might be the key to this move. The Michigan QB does have fans inside One Patriot Place, and there is a chance the team has him and Maye in the same grading cluster. Fact is, however, that they would leave themselves in a vulnerable position even if they drop back just three spots.

With Williams, Daniels and Maye all off the board, McCarthy would be the only top-four option left. This, in turn, might prompt the other teams mentioned above to get more aggressive in an attempt to come up and leap-frog New England.

The Patriots would have to feel very confident in their own board relative to the rest of the NFL to make a trade like that. If not, they would risk missing out on both Maye and McCarthy.

The trade offer itself, however, does look attractive.

Trade partner No. 2: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have been the most active team in the NFL when it comes to moving up. They already acquired an extra first-round pick in a trade with the Houston Texans previously, and might be willing to bundle their selections on Day 1 in order to make an even bigger jump. If so, the assumption again would be that Maye is their target.

While there is speculation Minnesota would like to keep one of its two first-round selections, that would be a dealbreaker for the Patriots. Likewise, the Vikings would have no part in a move that sends star wide receiver Justin Jefferson to New England.

With those parameters in place, Corry projects the following move: the 11th and 23rd overall picks this year, plus first- and fourth-rounders in 2025 for No. 3.

Four selections are a good haul, and the trade value chart naturally also sees an overpay on Minnesota’s part. The excess value, however, is projected as a bit lower overall (which is partly the result of the Vikings’ more favorable outlook for this coming season compared to the Giants’):

Is this a bag? Compared to similar trades in the past — including between Houston and Arizona just last year — it is.

From a value perspective, the Patriots therefore might be willing to move. They would then have two first-round picks in back-to-back years, while still positioning themselves to remain flexible. And flexible they might have to be if they want to remain in position to come away with either Maye or McCarthy.

If the Vikings move to grab Maye, the Patriots might have to jump back up again to secure McCarthy. Most teams between No. 4 and No. 9 would be receptive to a trade back, with the Giants possibly the lone exception and biggest threat. Whereas trading with them for No. 6 might be a dice roll, moving to No. 11 with New York still in its original spot would be a major gamble. So, the Patriots might want to move back up to No. 5 — unless, that is, New York is not considered to be in play for McCarthy at No. 6 in the first place.

The whole projection gets a bit convoluted from that point on. Focusing solely on the original trade proposal, New England might be inclined to move. And if not, maybe the Vikings might be willing to change the compensation a bit.

Instead of offering first- and a fourth-rounders next year, they might put up left tackle Christian Darrisaw on top of their two first-round picks in 2024 and a 2025 mid-round selection. That, too, might peak the Patriots’ interest to a point where they would move back.

Trade partner No. 3: Denver Broncos

At this point, the Giants and Vikings appear to be the most realistic trade options: both have shown a willingness to trade up, and their assets line up well relative to their current draft position. The Broncos are in a bit of a different spot, in comparison.

Sitting at No. 12 overall, Denver does not have an extra first-round pick to offer. In fact, the team does not even have a second-rounder to throw in this year. What they do have, though, is one of the league’s best cornerbacks: Patrick Surtain II.

Surtain is under contract through the 2025 season, and pairing him up with Christian Gonzalez would give New England one of the most promising cornerback tandems in football. Parting ways with their star CB would be a tough call for the Broncos, but — you know the saying about drastic times and drastic measures.

Corry projects Surtain in addition to No. 12 this year and a 2025 third-rounder as potential assets the Patriots might be willing to accept in a trade. Of course, it would come down to how New England values the 24-year-old All-Pro defender relative to draft pick compensation.

The trade chart offers a wide range when it comes to excess value, with Surtain basically having to make up everything from a mid-first-rounder to a late seventh-round pick. Given his track record in the NFL so far, he would probably clear all those hurdles:

Outside of building a possibly impenetrable fortress at cornerback, the trade would leave the Patriots with no extra capital in 2025 and only a modest capital increase in 2024. And while that extra third-rounder might help them move up again, possibly to No. 9 in a move with the Bears in order to jump ahead of Minnesota, it would likely put New England out of the running for the top-four QBs.

Of course, none of this matters if the team views the aforementioned Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. as adequate starting options. Both would likely be available at No. 12 regardless, giving the team the developmental quarterback it so desperately needs.

Still, out of the trade proposals we looked at so far this might be the one least likely to make New England move.

Trade partner No. 4: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders’ willingness will depend on what happens at No. 2. If the Commanders go against expectation and draft Drake Maye over Jayden Daniels, leaving he LSU passer on the board at No. 3, they might be motivated to pounce: rumor has it they very much would like to get Daniels if in any way possible.

The cost of business would be steep, though, given that the Patriots would drop all the way down to No. 13 — which would again likely put them out of the running for the fourth top QB, McCarthy, unless they want to reinvest assets to move up again. Corry therefore projected three first-rounders to change hands in exchange for No. 3: first-rounders in 2024, 2025 and 2026, plus a third-rounder this year.

The value chart would look at the move as follows:

Using conservative estimates for the Raiders’ success in 2024 and 2025, the Patriots’ excess value would again look less favorably than compared to the trade with the Giants at No. 6 overall. That, plus the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position at No. 13 this year, again makes this move less likely than those above.

In fact, the Giants’ and Vikings’ projected offers would possibly be the only ones Eliot Wolf and company would seriously entertain. And with the Patriots seemingly dead-set at getting a quarterback high in this year’s draft, New York might be the most attractive trade destination for New England: the drop would still keep the team in contention for the fourth quarterback (McCarthy) while also producing extra value in two drafts.

Would that fulfill the “bag” criteria? Maybe not, but it might be the best the teams involved could get.

2024-04-25T12:28:24Z dg43tfdfdgfd