RANKING THE MOST LIKELY JETS DRAFT SCENARIOS, FROM MY CURRENT PLAYMAKER FORECAST TO A LONG-SHOT TRADE

The NFL Draft is finally here.

After months of speculation and guessing (that’s what mock drafts are), we will finally get the answers to the test and see what the Jets and the 31 other teams decide to do in hopes of improving.

The choice for the Jets looks pretty clear: Get more protection for Aaron Rodgers or get him another playmaker.

The Jets should have options at No. 10 if they stay there. They also will have options to move up or back if that is what general manager Joe Douglas desires.

After conversations with people and lots of reading between the lines along with some informed guesswork, these are five scenarios I could see happening with the Jets in the first round, from most likely to least:

1. With the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Jets select tight end Brock Bowers of Georgia

At one point this offseason, I thought Bowers seemed like a long shot for the Jets. Now, he feels like the most likely pick.

Bowers is being hyped as one of the best offensive weapons in the draft. There is risk in taking a tight end in the first round. There is a history of those picks not working out, but I think the Jets are going to want to give Rodgers a target who can help immediately.

Bowers can line up in the slot as well as tight to the formation. He could form a nice 1-2 combination with Tyler Conklin and open up some more two-tight-end sets for the Jets, who lack an established slot receiver.

Douglas seemed to drop some breadcrumbs about the Jets’ interest in his pre-draft press conference last week.

He was asked about drafting players in the first round who don’t have a clear path to starting, a reference to taking a tackle in this draft. He brought up the team’s tight ends unsolicited, saying Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert would not just roll over if the Jets drafted a tight end. It felt like he was sending a message to them in case the team drafts Bowers.

2. With the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Jets select wide receiver Rome Odunze of Washington

What makes this exercise so tricky is not knowing who will be selected before the Jets are on the clock. This is all guesswork.

It appears four quarterbacks are going to be drafted in the top 10. Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers look as if they will be taken in the top six. Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt is expected to go. Then it gets murky. Will Odunze be drafted? Will he fall to No. 10?

If Odunze gets to No. 10, I think the Jets take him, even over Bowers. My Bowers projection above is based on the top three wide receivers being off the board.

Odunze would give the Jets a long-term bookend to team with Garrett Wilson and give them some insurance if Mike Williams is not 100 percent recovered from his ACL injury early in the season.

Jets owner Woody Johnson has repeatedly talked about “offense, offense, offense” this offseason. I don’t think he’s talking about drafting a tackle. My guess is Johnson wants Douglas to draft someone who will score touchdowns. That is why I am leaning toward a pass catcher over an offensive lineman.

3. The Jets trade back

Let’s say the top three wide receivers, Alt and Bowers are all gone in the top nine. That would leave the Jets deciding between the No. 4 wide receiver and the No. 2 offensive lineman.

In this scenario, I think Douglas would want to move back into the teens where he could still get a good player at either receiver or tackle and recoup a second-round pick.

The Jets do not currently have a second-rounder after dealing it away in the Aaron Rodgers trade. This is a deep class on the O-line and at wide receiver. The Jets can get a good player at one of those spots in the teens and gain some draft capital.

4. With the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Jets select an offensive lineman

The smartest long-term pick for the Jets is taking a tackle. The team found a short-term solution at tackle with the signing of Tyron Smith and the trade for Morgan Moses. But both players are 33 years old, signed for one year and have an injury question. Chances are both players are not going to make it through 17 games, and the Jets could address depth at the position with this pick while also securing a starter for the future.

But nothing smells like patience around the Jets right now.

It feels as if everything is about winning in 2024, and a tackle at No. 10 may not have the immediate impact that a pass catcher does. And my suspicion, as referenced above, is Johnson would prefer someone who catches touchdowns.

Douglas always has talked about building up the offensive and defensive lines. He has failed so far on the offensive side of the ball. He has drafted two linemen in the first round. Mekhi Becton was a bust who is currently a free agent. Alijah Vera-Tucker has played well when healthy, but suffered season-ending injuries in October in each of the past two years.

This could be another chance for Douglas to get it right. It could be Troy Fautanu of Washington or Taliese Fuaga of Oregon State or J.C. Latham of Alabama. All of them could be there at No. 10.

5. The Jets trade up

The only way you trade up is if you are absolutely in love with a player and feel there is a massive separation between that player and those below him who you might be able to take at No. 10.

Who is that? Marvin Harrison Jr.? Maybe. I’ve seen suggestions the Jets could trade up to No. 5 to get him. I’m not sure the Jets have the draft ammo to do that without a second-round pick. Is he that much better than the other receivers you might be able to get?

A more likely trade up is with the Falcons at No. 8. That would not be nearly as costly. You could leap up two spots to assure you get the player you want if you don’t like the alternatives at No. 10. This could be Bowers or Odunze if the Jets start to get nervous they might not be there at 10.

Teams looking for pass catchers may try to leap past the Jets to get one. The Falcons at No. 8 and Bears at No. 9 may be looking at defensive players and be willing to move down to get one.

Saturday fever

While almost all of the pre-draft focus centers on the first-round pick, Douglas really needs to hit on some Day 3 picks, an area where he has struggled as GM.

The Jets have drafted 19 players in rounds 4-7 under Douglas. Just two of them have become starters on offense or defense – cornerback Michael Carter II and safety Jason Pinnock (with the Giants).

Five others are contributors: cornerback Bryce Hall, punter Braden Mann, running back Michael Carter, cornerback Brandin Echols and defensive lineman Micheal Clemons.

He has not hit on any offensive linemen on Day 3. Max Mitchell is a backup. The jury is still out on Carter Warren, but the Jets’ offseason activity at tackle indicates they are not confident in him being a major player yet.

Everyone will fixate on what Douglas does Thursday night, but he also needs to get some hits on Saturday.

Stat’s so

Pro Football Reference has a measure of a player’s career called wAV or Weighted Career Approximate Value. It is similar to WAR in baseball.

Here are the top 10 Jets draft picks in franchise history, ranked by wAV:

1. Herb Adderley (1961, second round): 106

2. Demario Davis (2012, third round): 98

3. James Farrior (1997, first round): 95

4. Joe Namath (1965, first round): 94

6. Darrelle Revis (2007, first round): 93

7. Larry Grantham (1960*): 92

8. John Abraham (2000, first round): 91

T-9. Mo Lewis (1991 third round): 90

T-9. John Riggins (1971, first round): 90

*The exact order of the 1960 AFL Draft is unknown

Source: Pro Football Reference

2024-04-24T13:02:48Z dg43tfdfdgfd