2024 KENTUCKY DERBY PREDICTIONS, HORSES, ODDS, CONTENDERS: SURPRISING PICKS FROM TOP HORSE RACING INSIDER
The post position draw for the Kentucky Derby is usually held on Monday, but the 2024 Kentucky Derby featured a draw held a full week ahead. Post positions are one of the most crucial elements of building a winning 2024 Kentucky Derby betting strategy, as certain gates tend to perform better than others. Gate No. 5 has featured 10 champions, the most of any stall. There is a longshot coming from that post position this year, with Catalytic at 30-1 in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds following last weekend's 2024 Kentucky Derby post draw. Catalytic is well back of the top 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders on the horse racing odds board, Fierceness (5-2), Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1). Which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses should you include in your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets?
The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you'll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she's had handicapping this race.
Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.
Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager two years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.
Yu enters this year's Kentucky Derby on a roll. She correctly called National Treasure to win the Pegasus World Cup. In the month leading up to the Kentucky Derby, she predicted Stronghold's upset win in the Santa Anita Derby and smashed the exacta in the Apple Blossom Handicap.
For the first leg of the Triple Crown, Yu has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made her picks and constructed her best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is fading Fierceness, even though he is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. The bay colt is coming off one of the fastest Kentucky Derby prep races of this century when he crushed the Florida Derby field by more than 13 lengths. He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance, a number that even Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify did not earn in their Derby prep races.
But Fierceness produced that monstrous figure when he was able to dictate a moderate pace against inferior competition on a track that's conducive to speed. He's very likely to face a different scenario in the 20-horse Run for the Roses. "I can't see him being a lonely leader again in the Derby, and he has thrown in the towel the two times someone eyeballed him," Yu told SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Just a Touch, even though he's a longshot at 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds 2024. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Just a Touch has the pedigree to win the Kentucky Derby 2024 since he is a son of Triple Crown-winning Justify. He has tactical speed and this distance should be within his range after posting a trio of impressive speed figures.
Just a Touch broke his maiden with a dominant victory in a maiden special weight in January. He followed it up with a pair of runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, including the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes in April. Yu knows his odds would be even shorter if he had held off Sierra Leone in that race, so she is happy to take the value Just a Touch is offering. You can see all of Yu's 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who "will be happy to get the added ground" at Churchill Downs. She's also high on a massive double-digit longshot who "blew my doors off." She is including these horses in her 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |